Saturday night at Autzen Stadium, the entire country will be watching maybe the biggest regular season game of the year in college football. Here are our staff predictions between No. 3 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State.
DuckTerritory Staff
A new era ofOregonfootball has arrived. The Ducksentered their first season in the Big Ten Conference as the nation's No. 3 rankedteam in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, but the Ducks struggled out of the game to beat visiting Idaho 24-14.Now the Ducks have rebounded nicely with a blowout win over Oregon State and have entrenched themselves as the No. 8 team in the country going into a road game at UCLA. The Ducks maybe didn't put up as many points as we expected, but overall, Oregon dominated the UCLA Bruins 34-13 and didn't allow an offensive touchdown. What followed the UCLA win was a master class on defense as the Ducks dominated the Spartans 31-10 in Eugene.
Following a wild weekend in college football, the Ducks emerged unscathed and ranked No. 3 in the country, back where they started the season. The biggest game of the year is here as the Ducks host No. 2 Ohio State at Autzen Stadium. The inside track on the Big Ten Championship Game is on the line while also having playoff implications with a win or a loss.
The Ducks entered the 2024 college football season as the No. 3team in the country marksthe highest preseason ranking for Oregon since 2014 —a season that ended with the Ducks playing in the national championship game. Those same championship-levelexpectations arein placefor the 2024 version of Oregon football.
As Oregon prepares for what's expected to be a championship-caliberseason, theDuckTerritory.comstaff deliverstheirfinalpredictions ahead of Saturday's game, including three team prop bets, three individual offensive prop bets, three individual defensive prop bets and final score predictions for Oregon vs. Ohio State.
Here are the standings going into Oregon's fourth game of the season.
1. Erik 28-22 (W-L)
2. Jared 26-24
3. Matt 22-27-1
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Team Prop Bets
More empty red-zone possessions: Oregon or Ohio State?
Jared Mack - Oregon
Matt Prehm - Push
Erik Skopil - Oregon
Over/under: 3.5 Duck scoring drives of 10 or more plays
Jared Mack - Under
Matt Prehm - Under
Erik Skopil - Over
Over/under: 7.5 total touchdowns scored in this game
Jared Mack - Over
Matt Prehm - Over
Erik Skopil - Over
Offensive Individual Prop Bets (Jared)
Over/Under:Tez Johnson 7.5 receptions
Jared Mack - Over
Matt Prehm - Under
Erik Skopil - Under
Over/Under: Jordan James 97.5 rushing yards
Jared Mack - Under
Matt Prehm - Over
Erik Skopil - Over
Over/Under: Dillon Gabriel 275 passing yards
Jared Mack - Over
Matt Prehm - Over
Erik Skopil - Under
Defensive Individual Prop Bets
Jestin Jacobs over/under 4.5 tackles
Jared Mack - Under
Matt Prehm - Over
Erik Skopil - Under
Over/under Jordan Burch 1.5 sacks
Jared Mack - Under
Matt Prehm - Under
Erik Skopil - Under
Dontae Manning and Nikko Reed combined over/under 3.5 passes defended
Jared Mack - Under
Matt Prehm - Over
Erik Skopil - Over
Score Predictions
Matt Prehm- Oregon 31, Ohio State 28
If you had asked me about who would win this game before any games by any team were played this season, I would have said the Ducks with a moderate confidence level. After week two of the season, I would have picked Ohio State with a high probability. Now going into week seven, I'm picking Oregon with a low confidence level. While I think Oregon's offense has been inconsistent at times this season, I do believe they've shown progress in three straight games while the defense has been playing some of its best football we've seen under Dan Lanning.
What will boil down to difference makers in this game for me is that Ohio State (and also Oregon) haven't played anyone even close to the caliber of each other. Neither team has been tested by an elite offense or an elite defense, and now we'll see them face an elite offense and an elite defense at the same time. For Ohio State playing on the road, I think the gameday atmosphere at Autzen Stadium will set the stage and lead to some costly mistakes.
Secondly, I think Oregon's defense is a lot better than what people think. The defensive line is maybe playing its best since the Ducks' 2014 season and Oregon's linebacker play is by far the best its been since the 2019 season or even further back. I think Ohio State has the advantage on the perimeter with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, but it won't be as impactful if Ohio State QB Will Howard doesn't have all day to throw the football. I'm banking on the gameday atmosphere and Oregon's front seven generating enough pressure to limit the deep passing game of Ohio State.
Ultimately, I like Oregon's defense rising up and creating one extra stop than Ohio State's defense, and a field goal being the difference in this game. The bigger storyline that emerges from this game regardless of score is that Oregon and Ohio State will be viewed as the clear-cut favorites in the Big Ten and be viewed as two of the nation's five best teams.
Erik Skopil -Oregon 31, Ohio State 28
I've been flip flopping so much this week you'd think I lived on the beach. I predicted a 12-0 regular seasonin fall camp. Play on the field since has favored the Buckeyes. They've looked more competent most weekends, have been more dominant (39.2 margin of victory compared to 18.0) and have made fewer mistakes. There's a reason the betting line shifted from Oregon's favor to an Ohio State's over the past six weeks.
When you dive into the numbers, you see that Ohio State really lacks any discernible weaknesses. The offense has kicked butt. The defense has been even better. On paper, almost everything favors them. But, as I wrote yesterday, I actually don't care all that much about resumes when neither side has faced a team comparable to the one they'll face on Saturday. How they respond to playing elite competition is unknown, as is what will and won't work against it.
I write all of that to say, that I think some are conflating Ohio State's dominance over five bad to middling teamsto being unbeatable. The Buckeyes aren't perfect. I think they're the better of the two teams in totality, but I also think Oregon still hasa few crucialadvantages. First, playing at home is normally big but especially when you consider the travel required to get to Eugene.Big Ten teams are 1-8 in games where they travel across two or more time zones. This will qualify. And while I don't think it will mean everything, it may be the difference between perfect execution and a few mistakes. Secondly, Oregon may actually be a bit more frightening at the line of scrimmage than folks give them credit for. The idea that these wildly talented skill players will run all over this defense is dependent on clean operations to set them up. If Oregon is to win this game, as I am predicting, it must muck things up and speed up Will Howard. I think they do that.
What's my confidence level in this? Nothigh at all. I have very little conviction. I think this game is really difficult to predict for the the reasons I stated above regarding strength of schedule. I don't see Oregon rolling over though as I've seen some suggest.
Jared Mack -Ohio State 35, Oregon 28
I'm predicting Oregon's first loss of the season and another spread not covered.
I think Oregon has the chance to win. They have the talent, they have the pedigree, they have all the capabilities to do so, which is part of the reason making predictions can be frustrating. Will they put all of those winning ingredients together and whip up an "upset?" That will remain to be seen until Saturday.
What I can say are my biggest concerns for Oregon moving into this game. It starts with the secondary. Ohio State's wide receivers have been a storyline all week and they should be. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka will be the two best receivers Oregon sees all season unless they play Alabama, or Missouri, or Arizona in a bowl game. Both Smith and Egbuka deserve equal amounts of attention yet Oregon only has one lockdown corner with Jabbar Muhammad.
What either Smith or Egbuka or former five-star receiver Carnell Tate, will do on the other side will be an interesting matchup to watch. Another secondary factor is the safeties just haven't been tested deep this year except for a handful of times. It's worked at points but they will be tested against this Ohio State team. It feels very familiar to Oregon's first matchup against Washington a season ago, where a very good secondary took on future NFL receivers. The lone difference is quarterback play, which could be the Ducks' saving grace, though I think Will Howard is more than capable of making deep throws.
My second biggest concern is Oregon's offensive line and the talent they're about to see. Ohio State's defensive front has some future NFL players in Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Ty Hamilton, and Tyleik Williams. It will be the best unit of the season until they square off against Michigan. Can Oregon's offensive line give Dillon Gabriel enough time to throw down the field so the run game can get started?
If not, Ohio State's secondary could get involved early and often on Saturday.
Ultimately, I think Oregon makes it close and makes this, at the very least, an ultra-competitive and exciting college football game. I just think Ohio State is the better team right now. Come conference championship season, maybe that's a different story.